2023 market prediction: mix of hits and misses keeps theatrical prediction at $10 billion for the year

The Super Mario Bros. Movie gave the market a huge boost in April, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 outperformed our prediction in early May, and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse started June with a bang. But our predicted box office for the year as a whole remains unchanged at $10 billion in our latest update thanks partly to Fast X underperforming stateside, but also quite a few other films missing expectations. The good news is that our model remains fairly confident that the North American market will hit the magical 11-figure number this year after our prediction jumped appreciably in late April and early May.

Subscribe to our Bankability and Box Office report for full details, or read on for an overview of how our model thinks the rest of 2023 will shape up in movie theaters…

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