2023 market prediction: predicted box office for the year down to $9.2 billion after a shaky June

Poor performances by The Flash and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, plus, to a lesser extent, Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken were all bad news for the market during June and the beginning of July. Between them, those three films dragged our market prediction down by almost $230 million. They were also a factor in convincing me to adjust our underlying assumption about the overall strength of the theatrical market. That change, even though it’s small in percentage terms, further pulls down the prediction for 2023, and makes a $10-billion year a much more distant prospect than it looked a month ago.

Subscribe to our Bankability and Box Office report for an extended version of this report, delivered a week before we publish updates online, or read on for an overview of how our model thinks the rest of 2023 will shape up in movie theaters…

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